Let’s take a look at Apple history since Steve Jobs has come back and we’ll look at a handful of products that were destined to fail for various reasons.

• iMac – “It didn’t have a disk drive!” That was the main killer there. Yet, wasn’t this the product that got Apple back on its feet?
• iPod – “It doesn’t support Ogg Vorbis!” and “it’s a hard drive-based player, you need a flash memory player!” Do we really need to discuss this one any further? An entire industry has been built around this product.
• iPhone – “It doesn’t support MMS or video. The battery isn’t removable. It’s only on one carrier”. I’d hardly call the iPhone a failure either

That’s just a handful of products that were destined to fail for very specific reasons (in addition to all three of those products being “overpriced” and only for “snobby Apple fanboys”). Now let’s look at the main gripes of the iPad.

• No Flash support – Could be a problem…for now. HTML 5 is getting tightened up and there will be no need for the proprietary Flash
• No built-in USB – Could be a problem…for now. There are adapters, there’s the dock, there’s wifi to connect to your network. Is it a killer? I highly doubt it.
• No camera – People are listing this as a reason the iPad will fail? If it’s THAT important I’m sure Apple will add one in the next release. For now I just don’t think it’s a reason to deem this a failure.
• It doesn’t do what an iPhone/netbook/laptop does – Well, it’s NOT an iPhone or netbook or laptop. Don’t try to compare it to one. It’s an entirely new device for consumers. Would you rather lug your laptop around to check your mail or read an ebook or have an iPad sitting in the living room?
• No removable battery – Do you need one? The battery lasts crazy long even under full use. An extra battery would be nice but it’s hardly a reason the iPad will be a failure
• Touch keyboard – If you really need one you can add one. Again, not a reason for failure. I think people will appreciate the sleek design and not having to worry about breaking keys as they lug this around.

Do I have an iPad? No. Do I want one? Sure. Do I think it’s a miracle device? No. Do I think it will fail? Hell no.

Apple has created a device that does not fit into any particular category. Many publishers have signed on knowing this will be an easier way to distribute their content. Developers are loving the fact there’s another platform to develop for. Consumers are still on the fence but I think once there is a realization that it fits a nice niche between iPhone/iPod Touch and a laptop, sales will continue to grow (they’d probably grow more if Apple didn’t sign another exclusive deal with AT&T. C’mon guys…really?).

That’s just the hardware side of things…don’t even get me started on how much money Apple will make from app sales and other content sales through this thing. A bust? I think not.

Some background on the reviewer (it’s not me). He’s an artist/illustrator. The man, the reviewer, the Spencer Lindsay (you’ll see some of his goods on his blog).

Here’s what he’s got to say:
======begin Spencer iPad review=======

OK.

Full day and a half of using my iPad and I can’t get it away from my teenage daughters – hence the snappy title.

• Battery Life:
  • Absofuckinglutely unstoppable. I’ve had it on for the entire day today, playing movies, surfing the web – ooohhh… the web surfing… and drawing on it.
  • As of 8:15pm, battery is at 65%
• UI:It’s cooler than SJ made it look in his easychair rollout talk. Smooth, fast and responsive without even one hiccup so far.
  • If you have an iPhone or a touch, you know what to do.
• Apps:
  • I bought iWork.
    • Pages: Pretty damn cool. Kinda hard to type fast on the slippery keyboard, but I think I can get used to it. Extremely intuitive interface with one exception: where are all the files kept and why are there multiple copies? Must look into it.
    • Numbers: Seems exactly as useable as pages – I’m going to mess with it tonight.
  • iPhone apps sometimes crash.
  • iPhone apps look a little yucky compared to the “HD” versions of the iPad apps.
  • Google Maps app is shockingly fast and useable. The multitouch stuff really is amazing in this.
• No Flash.
  • I have yet to find this a problem. CBS even has a (FREE) iPad app that lets you watch their shows (FREE) and it acts just like Hulu. I’m guessing that all the networks are going to do this if they like money. 700,000 sold in one day… yoiks!
• GPS, Compass, Accelerometer:
  • All work flawlessly with most apps, though some of the app store purchases seem a little “rickety”… possibly the new API – I know there were some changes between iPhone and iPad.
• Screen:
  • Sharp, crisp and fast.
  • Sticky fingers do leave some smudges though, I’ve had to clean it twice today but there’s been a ton of fingers on it.
• Movies: Awesome. Clear and sharp and very fast to load.
• Books:
  • I’ve purchased one book: Dies the fire, and it’s very readable – The one thing I might add is a “lock scree rotation” button. Occasionally, while shifting positions, the screen rotated on me.
  • There are a bazillion free downloads of all the classics. It felt funny loading Tolstoy and the collected works of Shakespear on it but I did it because I could.
• Mail:
  • Pretty much the same a iPhone mail with more room.
• Safari:
  • Holy mother of God this is where the iPad totally shines for me. The speed is fantastic, the refresh speed of the graphics is amazing and the multitouch to zoom in and out of pages at will is just so cool.

I had it with me at the aquarium today and the reactions were anything but ambivalent. I got one of two reactions:

1.) OMG is that an IPAD!! Want!
b.) Oh yeah, an iPad, I can’t believe you bought one. (editor’s note…it’s an inside joke with “b” following “1″ in our lists)

The naysayers usually say: But it’s just a big iPod Touch…

My question is: “is that a bad thing?”

Still trying to figure out if this will replace the MBP… it might.

=====end Spencer iPad Review======

Spencer then went on to ramble on about what happened on Day Two of his iPad experience.

=====Spencer’s iPad Thoughts Day Two====

Day two.

Left it on the kitchen counter.

In a half an hour, Clan Lindsay had looked up a map of Santa Cruz, checked housing listings, googled images of Lady Gaga all while listening to the new Black-Eyed Peas album.

It’s more of an appliance than I thought.

=====end Spencer’s iPad Thoughts Day Two====

And there you have it folks. An everyday consumer with a family seems to think “yes, I like this machine”. Forget all the “pundits” and “experts” who complain about the lack of a camera or that it doesn’t have a keyboard. This isn’t a laptop for crying out loud. It’s a new device. As I stated/asked in my last iPad piece with my predictions, it’s created a whole new category. I’ll admit I want one. It won’t replace my laptop but it will certainly be a nice device to have in the living room, bedroom, kitchen…

Kudos to you Apple for creating yet another winner and making countless millions craving to spend more money on your devices. Sheesh…anyone want to send me one to review?

I’ll make it short. I know you’re getting inundated with April Fool’s emails and such. Let’s go over these predictions and discuss:

1. Apple’s stock will continue to climb because of the iPad – Why? First, you’ve got the obvious hardware sales. Next up, you’ve got yet more sales to be made in the App Store. It also opens up a whole new ecosystem with the publishers. That’s a pretty good revenue stream coming in for Apple.
2. Laptops, even MacBooks and MacBook Pros will look like boring business machines – People will look at their big heavy laptops and use them mainly for work and keep their iPads out in the living room for some quick email checking or the bedroom for some pre-bed reading. Who wants to lug a big laptop all around?
3. Computers aren’t just for “creating” anymore – The iPad will be quite a consuming device. Consuming apps, games, books. We all know we aren’t going to create any wondrous app on this thing however we will certainly use it to buy a lot of stuff.
4. A new category of computing devices is named – Let’s look up at #3. Maybe this WON’T be considered a computer. It’s clearly not a desktop, laptop, or netbook (all considered computers). It’s not an iPod. It’s a hybrid of an iPod and a computer…but just what the hell is it? Once again…Apple creates a new industry.

I stop at four. Everyone does five or ten. Booooring! I think however this is enough thought-provoking tidbits to get us all discussing the merits of such. Agree? Disagree? Have stuff to add? Let’s get to it!

PS – I’ve got a few more thoughts but I wouldn’t want to bias what you have to say. After enough people chime in I’ll go ahead and spew more thoughts out.

The folks at MacDailyNews compiled a great list of quotes from various people that poo-pood on the notion of Apple creating a phone. These quotes of course come after the latest numbers reported by Apple showing that they are now the world’s third largest mobile phone supplier based on revenue and that the iPhone outsold the Blackberry last quarter. Not bad from a company that was once called “the beleaguered company” a number of years ago.

My favorite quote (probably based on my frustration with Palm as they keep fumbling the ball) is from Ed Colligan, CEO of Palm on November 16, 2006. He stated “We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” 

Really? Good job Ed. While you sat there and and did nothing with your OS, some “PC guys” came along and created one of the most popular phones in history. 

It’s this kind of thinking by executives that drives me crazy. What should be a great company falls by the wayside because of a great mixture of arrogance and ignorance. I love my Treo but damn…it’s like a clunky old brick compared to the iPhone. If not for Apple’s exclusive deal with AT&T and my great plan with Sprint I’m sure I’d be yet another iPhone owner amongst my friends and colleagues.

So how did Apple do it? I’m pretty sure the “cool factor” of owning an Apple device played a role in their sales. However, Apple is known for massive R&D, for finding what the users want, for making things simple to use. While Palm (and everyone else for that part) was sitting on their ass, Apple was working on features, ergonomics, design, ease-of-use…and look where we are now.

Let this be a lesson to all those companies that think they have a particular market or even a particular niche cornered. Anybody can come in and rain on your picnic. In these days and times it is a dangerous thing to rest on your laurels. There is always someone looking to put a better product out there and if you rest, you’ll fall behind faster than you can imagine.

So why have I been remiss in my duties? It’s been busy out there. In case nobody has noticed, our economy is going in the shitter. Luckily I wasn’t one of those that bought a house during the bubble so I’m not affected too much by that, however the ensuing stock market meltdown has hit me. Thus I’ve been busy working on some side projects and on the new gig I’m doing at an EDI company.

One interesting thing to note is an article I read in a small business/entrepreneurial focused magazine. They noted that many small business owners were closing down shop and returning to Corporate America. I found that rather ironic as I was just finishing up my paperwork to start another company. I’d much rather build something solid, something I trust, something I know the ins and outs of and how it is affected by market conditions, the economy, the competition, and so forth instead of being an underling in some company that cuts jobs reacting to those forces. The new gig is still in the works…a lot depends on me getting back to the Bay Area and simply being in close proximity to the tech geeks, the VCs, and just a culture that fosters such innovative thought. With a mix of a couple big ideas and enough smaller ones I think I’ll be able to sustain life while working on the small ones and hopefully hitting one out of the park if one or more of the big ones take off.

I must give credit to a longtime friend from Carnegie Mellon who sent me a text message tonight. His text not only supplied yet another good business idea for me to mull over but it also inspired me to hop on here and let my readers know I’m still alive and kickin’. Thanks Stu…I owe ya one.

Just a few more random thoughts before signing off for the night.

1) The process for getting Apple to sign off on selling apps for the iPhone is ridiculous. I’ve been talking to a few friends about various ideas (three or four good ones to start things off) but after seeing the time and brain drain we’re rethinking that. Can we say Android anyone?

2) Android phones…I didn’t really plan on getting giddy about them but after seeing HTC’s G-1 phone…good…freakin’…googly. I want that. I’m looking forward to seeing how it fares out in the real market.

3) “What about the Samsung Instinct that you’ve been talking so much about?” Eh…after picking it up and using it for a bit, I was less than impressed. I still love my Treo (Palm OS-based…not the new Windows version) and love Sprint’s plans and service. I just hope Palm comes out with a new OS soon or I will be tempted to wander…

I think you’ve got enough of my rambling for now. I’ll try not to let side projects keep me from posting. As always, if anyone has a question or a comment please feel free to write. Interaction makes life much more enjoyable.

Another technology that perplexes me, one that I thought was on its way out a decade ago, is Cold Fusion. New coding standards, richer XHTML capabilities, and new languages would surely make this closed system obsolete, right? Wrong. A decade after thinking its days were limited (I had no timeframe in mind, I just saw the writing on the wall. Well, at least I THOUGHT I did…) I still see .cfm on many pages that I hit as I’m surfing around.

It’s tough to predict the future when it comes to the Internet and other computer-related technologies. Things that seem like a sure hit can fail for a variety of reasons (marketing, bad implementation, politics, etc) while other technologies that seem as if they are becoming obsolete continue to exist, and sometimes thrive. For now I guess the safe bet would be to use the technologies that have the most compatibility and sadly, the most backing. I say sadly because backing can come from deep wallets wanting to push a particular standard for reasons of profit rather than promoting the most useful and promising technology. Goodbye Betamax, sorry Minidisk, you had a chance Ogg Vorbis but not good enough, you were fun while you lasted HD-DVD. There goes that semester of programming I took in Pascal…

The discouraging thing is that in this day and time, business and technology moves along at a MUCH faster pace than it did even just a couple decades ago. Our product could be obsolete by the time this patent gets granted. Every month that goes by is tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of missed revenue.

We’ve heard of the USPTO reforms that are supposed to be taking place. When will we actually see these changes? How many millions of dollars must be lost before the USPTO becomes an efficient machine? The economy of the U.S. would benefit from these changes and the U.S. would also become competitive in the international marketplace. Until these changes take place, thousands of good ideas will fail to make it to market at a relevant time, businesses will fail to have a chance to succeed, and our competitive advantage will continue to deteriorate.

So just who is ZapMedia? Do they really have a case? Or are they just trying to cash in on Apple’s success?

Here’s what I’m really seeing out of this however. Apple releases a wildly popular product with consumers. We’ve come to expect that from Apple. And of course being in the limelight, there are many critical eyes on what Apple releases. “No SDK!” and “No exchange support!” were two biggies that were most often talked about. “The iPhone has no chance going against the BlackBerry without Exchange support.”

What Apple did was genius. They create a simple to use smartphone (with elegant design of course). I don’t even think Apple intended for this to be a BlackBerry competitor. However, they release what they want to release yet leave it flexible enough to add what needs to be added when they hear back from the masses. The masses wanted Exchange support and now each new iPhone will come with it built in. They let the general population do the test marketing and dictate what would be featured in a great product. The first iPhone was no failure by any means, yet after releasing what they wanted for the consumers and then listening to the enterprise wish list, they now have a product for both consumers and business. Genius I say.